Trade 2 – NZD/EUR

 Analysis Test

eur1The weekly/daily reflecting Waves 1 to 5 (blue).

eur2On the last Wave 5 (blue), another Waves 1 to 5 (orange).

eur3On the last Wave 5 (orange), another Waves 1 to 5 (purple) which has completed. Correction A has formed. B is still in the process. C next?

Friday 3 February 2017 @ 0300 – Should I have entered a short position for the short term?

Since orange and blue have also completed their Wave 5, longer term ABC expected as well?

Update with answers in the future.

Entry

Friday 3 February 2017 @ 1500eur4On the 1H, a set-up with trigger. Added confluence thanks to Fibonacci Expansion neatly calculating the impulse wave and pullback.

25 and 75 SMA creating the TAZ which price entered and left. Entered at market with stops above the pullback swing and target profit at 100% mark. 1% of capital risked and potential trade performance is 3R.

Entry: 0.67577 | Stop loss: 0.6782 | Target Profit: 0.6689

Psychology and emotions – Neutral, leaning towards the good side perhaps. Studied more about Elliot waves last night and fascinated by its fractal nature. It’s like inception and can be very confusing.

Trade Management

eur5The 30 and 90 SMA might give a better TAZ. Small difference.

Exit

eur6Guess I was wrong, or entered too early. No idea.

Psychology and emotions – Had a feeling that was gonna end  up in a loss. But small risk so not much of a biggie.

Result: -1R which is a loss of 1% of capital of a small account.

After trade:EUR7 (-).pngDid I just ignore this trend? After deleting away all the colourful waves, I realised the most basic and important factor.

Maybe the trigger was forced and used as a confirmation bias; did not trade in trend direction.

At this point, the previous analysis might still be right and I entered the trade early… The large candle could also possibly be due to the stop loss orders above the short sellers…

Due to the fractal nature and complexities of the Elliot wave, I think I shouldn’t be using it or making it a huge part of the analysis. Perhaps just watch it and admire how the market moves in such a manner.

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