T13 – EUR/GBP

IMPULSE – CORRECTION – IMPULSE

T13EURGBP.png

ENTRY

Daily/4H/1H/30mins timeframe (select only 1)

[1] Price trailed by 30SMA – ensure strength of first impulse wave (✓)

[2] Pullback between 30SMA and 150SMA (✓)

[3] Corrective structure formation with 2×2 touches (✓)

[4] Stop order at the break of corrective structure with stop loss after swing L/H (✓)

[4] Stop order after price bounce off area of value with volatility stop

Additional confluences: Support or Resistance (S to R), ADX40, Linear Trend Lines, Fibonacci Retracement, ATR and Elliot Waves.

1% capital risked for potentially 1.8R

Open: 0.8558 | Stop loss: 0.86 (-42 points) | Take Profit: 0.8482 (+76 points)

Remarks: Might have been able to squeeze out 2R, but thankful with 1.8R now. Immediately shifted volatility stop after trigger.

MANAGEMENT

Keying in the trade, use volatility stop placed under/above an established swing L/H or moving average cross or estimating volatility using ATR.

Real stop loss placed under/above the anticipated swing L/H using 150SMA as a guide.

Take profit calculated using the length of the prior impulse wave rounded off to next nearest swing point/key level.

Once entry triggered and break out, shift automated volatility stop to real stop position.

download (1)Turns out: The corrective structure’s forming a sort of bearish pennant. Looking at the bigger picture, original take profit level will be an early place to close the trade since it will be in the middle of nowhere, especially if price breaks out of the structure. Using the prior impulse to calculate TP level, it will be at an even lower support level, reducing probability of success. Therefore, take profit level has been shifted down to 0.8422 (+136 points) giving a 3.2R potential. Still sticking to the plan.

download (1).pngAt 50% of 2nd impulse or a swing L/H established, shift stop to break even.

At about 80% of 2nd impulse, shift stop to the 50% mark or below/above swing L/H.

If price breaks and closes under/above the 30SMA, tighten stop loss and prepare for manual exit.

EXIT

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[1] Initial stop loss

[2] Trailing stop, as mentioned under management

[3] Manual exit due to change of momentum and break of market structure

[4] Take profit

Remarks: Sellers getting weak, candles getting smaller and triangle forming on the daily. Can still break to the downside of course, but for this swing the bears are deemed to be gone.

REVIEW

download (1).pngEnded up hitting TP with 3.2R. Anticipated the break out due to the low volatility but never gave the market a chance. Still, there’s also the possibility of getting wicked out before the large bearish candle. Gotta be thankful with 2R anyway.

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