T19 – EUR/CAD

IMPULSE – CORRECTION – IMPULSE

T19EURCAD.png

ENTRY

Daily/4H/1H/30mins timeframe (select only 1)

[1] Price trailed by 30SMA – ensure strength of first impulse wave (✓)

[2] Pullback between 30SMA and 150SMA (✓)

[3] Corrective structure formation with 2×2 touches (✓) S to R

[4] Stop order at the break of corrective structure with stop loss after swing L/H (✓)

[4] Stop order after price bounce off area of value with volatility stop

Additional confluences: Support or Resistance, ADX40, Linear Trend Lines, Fibonacci Retracement, ATR and Elliot Waves.

1% capital risked for potentially 1.88R

Open: 1.4245 | Stop loss: 1.437 (-125 points) | Take Profit: 1.401 (+235 points)

Remarks: Hopefully this execution and management is better than T14

MANAGEMENT

Keying in the trade, use volatility stop placed under/above an established swing L/H or moving average cross or estimating volatility using ATR.

Real stop loss placed under/above the anticipated swing L/H using 150SMA as a guide. + 30/150SMA cross

Take profit calculated using the length of the prior impulse wave rounded off to next nearest swing point/key level.

Once entry triggered and break out, shift automated volatility stop to real stop position.

download.pngAt 50% of 2nd impulse or a swing L/H established, shift stop to break even.

download.pngAt about 80% of 2nd impulse, shift stop to the 50% mark or below/above swing L/H. There is a possibility that price might not be able to reach TP as bearish momentum weakens upon hitting a former resistance level, 0.6R secured. Shall consider it as breakeven if TS triggered as less than 1R.

If price breaks and closes under/above the 30SMA, tighten stop loss and prepare for manual exit.

EXIT

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[1] Initial stop loss

[2] Trailing stop, as mentioned under management

[3] Manual exit due to change of momentum and break of market structure

[4] Take profit

Remarks: The ABC wave which the profit target was based on might have already played out as about 80% of the projected wave has completed. A bullish engulfing at the support level followed by little bearish candles suggests that downside might be limited and the TP level have a lesser chance of getting hit.

download (3).pngThe lack of bearishness to keep the trade open as seen with a falling wedge + price is at about 50% of prior impulse.

REVIEW

download.pngShort position covered just in the nick of time as the falling wedge reversal breaks out.

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