formulate a trade idea – your analysis, a likely possibility // set-up play out
On the weekly, there is a corrective structure that might be forming. A rally to retest the high is a good possibility.
The buy setup that is seen as a mini flag on the weekly. 100 SMA confirms the uptrend. Wave C has played out and bought after a 4H/1H buy setup (multiple inside bars). Question is to take profit at shown level or standby for a break out. Possibility of Wave E in the structure – pulling back to the 0.618 level and the formation of a three drive pattern.
trigger for the mentioned idea, what you want to see: clean impulse + choppy correction
Fractal nature at its finest – a buy setup within the buy setup.
Closer look on the 1H, clear 3 waves on A and B.
Short term – Hold and do nothing in anticipation of the break out towards TP, if there’s another wave down just hold it, stop loss should be far enough. If TP after this setup plays out 1.8R
Long term – Shift to breakeven once it reaches the former TP level at 1.495. If it comes back down for Wave E, trail stop to close out after the B sell setup. Re-enter again at Wave E after buy setup and hold in anticipation of break out. Idea is invalid after change of structure. LT take profit is length of daily prior impulse – potentially >7R
TREND on entry timeframe & 4H chart, determined by SMA if subjective (✓)
IMPULSE registering ADX>25 (✓) Daily ADX43 & 1H ADX39
COIL structure clear formation relative to prior impulse (✓)
Flag // Rectangle // Pennant // Wedge // Triangle // Diamond
Fibonacci 50%–61.8% // S&R Level // Trend Line // Moving Average
Simple // ABC // ABCDE // Extended Combo
Entry @ Break of Structure // Area of Value + Candlesticks
Stop Loss @ +1ATR away from last wick // Before Impulse Start
Take Profit @ Length of Prior Impulse // Next Area of Value
1% capital risked for potentially 1.8R
Entry: 1.461 | Stop loss: 1.4424 (-186 points) | Take Profit: 1.495 (+340 points)
If running >1R + swing established, risk halved
If 20% left to take profit, shift to break even
If strong momentum + space to run + aligned with long term view, extend take profit and use trailing stop
Manual. Reason: Quite likely there will be a wave E to complete the 3 drives pattern. Will be buying then. Bullish engulfing at the top + due pullback on the Euro + bullish bias on the Aussie. Following the plan although there isn’t a clear sell setup yet but the moment of madness with the other pairs got to me…